Thursday, July 24, 2008

The Chimps are back.

[Announcement] : Chimpanzees buy Indian Stocks at 14,800.
BSE Sensex today: 14,777.
NSE Nifty today: 4,433.

There we said it ...so there is no mistaking.

Not into dispensing common sense( disguised as high sounding financial acumen) free of cost.. we have taken this unusual step of actually divulging our "take" on the market owing to the following reasons:

  1. The plethora of sorryAssed "investors" who, having lost their shirts and shoelaces in the recent bull market, that have signed on as Luddic clients in hope of recovering some "investments" before their wives discover their indiscretions to neighborhood rattling public spankings.
  2. The rash of value that has emerged in Indian stocks.
  3. The reforms are back on track.
  4. Everyone else is buying this rally.. the bang is back.
As is evident from the state of this country's economy and markets.. the bovine don't get it..ever.

And shockingly the "analysts" seem to be getting the message too finally..

UBS:
The Swiss bank lowered its year-end Sensex target to 15,500 points from 19,600 previously.
HSBC:
HSBC also cut its year-end target for 2009 to 15,000 from 21,000.

The good part is these marsupials still have their jobs or we would be hard pressed for targets.. and the good fortune that follows such targeted investments.

..but our personal experience with analysts and fund managers has been less than lovely.. for over 5 months after (getting ppl invested at Index 21,000 odd) , they assured :
20,500 "..buy this dip"
19,500 "..just a correction buy this dip.."
18,500 "..even better value buy this dip.."
17,500 "..average down your cost .. buy this dip.."
16,500 ".. bottom is here now .. buy this dip.."
15,500 .. cannot locate the man..phone switched off.
14,500 .. still no guidance.
13,500 ".. take the matter into own hands .. hold for recovery."
13,000 ".. cannot go lower.."

Suddenly , Govt survives confidence votes and the bulls' confidence is back.. Finance minister is back in saddle and economy is once again in good hands..evidence? his quick and astute analysis of the Oil situation..within hours of the vote.

...and our "analyst" is back..
...14,500 .. the market has bottomed .. just buy every stock flat out.

.. and this time of course, he can be trusted.

Strangely.. the Real Estate sector's value is still not being priced fairly.. apart from some far sighted turkeys like Lehman Brothers giving Rs.750 odd crores ($175 mil) to equally far sighted developers like Unitech .. um.. who are ideal partners considering identical farsightedness, but more importantly identically collapsing stock prices.

2 comments:

the dude said...

Great blog. These trigger happy analysts change their targets at every whim. Absolutely manic. Market sentiment, eh. Watch the long John's describe it brilliantly, 'Shall I jump out of the window' :)

http://youtube.com/watch?v=5OtKt3ezHY0

Anonymous said...

Someone asked me recently tocomment on a report from MS which said - sensex by year end will be 13,273 (note the precision) but will be within a margin of +-35%. So, the margin of error is only 70% you see. All i could say was - good modelers with nice charting tools!

Good one up theirs and the likes!

-Scorp