Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Indian stocks bottom again !!

As most every half wit knows, India is a great long term fact a fantastic opportunity that is evident to everyone and their portfolio managers.. a certainty..clear as day.

So, what now ails the "smart" money from getting onto this gravy train.. especially when it was this very "smart" money that enlightened the clueless natives about the glorious economic future that lay ahead .

So the foreign "smart" money came in plane loads.. saw the crowds around the airports.. smelt a mega opportunity.. met up with the "promoters" and convinced the poor saps to look beyond their quick buck, corner cutting, short termist, scummy businessman outlook and get a little "professionalized", "corporatized", "organized" and soon "private Equitized".

So the ordinary Indian Business Galoot suddenly sat up and started pestering his staff to quickly tell him how much was a million dollar in rupee lacs rupee crores.. this started looking good from his angle.
For years he had had to bribe, fleece, lie , beg and finally cheat and steal from his share holders and unsympathetic bankers( the salaried class ha!) to fund his gaming the system and suddenly these young "smart" money foreigner gents ( who obviously knew something he didn't ) wanted to throw easy cash at him and his "business" at lovely "valuations" that only they could calculate oh sooo accurately.. it just excited him.

And thus the great Indian growth story was on.

Everyone and his neighbour got this "smart" money in their companies.. at ever more exciting "valuations" and "stakes".. and they even pitted some "smart" money against each other ( so much "smart" money and so little time) to bid that wee more naughty "valuation".. oooh it was heady.

..And then suddenly the "smart" money which had been confidently and in suitably impressive tones been sermonizing on the equally impressive reasons why India was "decoupled" from turmoil back home .. this same "smart" money quickly lost that knowledgeable sheen to plunge to panicked hen levels shockingly naive even vis-a-vis the retail investor losers who'd succumbed earlier to loss of faith in the Long term.
To be fair the "smart" money boys did hold on to InForTheLongHaul song and dance for as long as their religious faiths allowed (and some faithfuls hold on even till today) .. but it does get difficult to hold onto the original positions after being fired from your firm or (as increasingly seen lately) the entire "smart" money firm going under, in this completely unforeseen Emerging Markets' mess.. gets a little tough to finance Indian real estate companies in these circumstances.

And that seems likely what ails the smart money.

Now fortunately ..and after a long 2 week gap of no "analyst" and market "expert" calling a market bottom.. we have had some sane voices explain in serious tones that the worst seem to be over as far as the Indian stocks are concerned and they do not expect further down moves..

This is a big relief as many of our clients have had trouble sleeping without being able to find a single reassuaring voice after all day of scanning news and TV to confirm their hope that this looks like the bottom.. you know these poor "investors" have been holding onto their stock "investments" since Sensex 19,500 that it cannot go lower and no point selling now..after this much fall.

Well we have been busy at Luddic Research at our UnHedged Fund what with hiring and training a couple more west African Baboons to expand our core Research team and as these two specialise in special situation shorts, their dart throws have just handily beat the market ever since.

Finally further to our latest discussions with Prashant Bhatia, the analyst virtuoso over at CitiGroup .. it is likely he will join our fledgling Unhedged Fund in the newly created important position of the Chief decoyTurkey for holding forth in the financial media about the Indian Banking sector and sometimes regaling the girls with his historic US banking upGrade calls that are now folklore..notably Lehman Brothers..We got us a legend !!

Lastly, we are now a bit worried about India's first authentic Warren Buffet , who modestly confessed he has never lost money in stocks (surpassed Warren too here).. is a bit missing in action for past few months .. and his lovely face and priceless pearls are no longer being cast in the financial media.. hope all is well..since no corpulent bulls on TV means no sustainable bull moves in Indian stocks.

But then Rakesh Jhunjhunwala knows Sensex will be 25,000 by 2010 and 50,000 in 5-6 years.. so why worry about this short term noise.. eh?

Though,we thank the lord the Bottom is finally reached again..was getting a little rough.

1 comment:

D. L. Bailey said...

Is the outside money really gone???

Are there no more suits flying in from Wall Street and The City?

You blog is clearly for those in the know about the Indian market, but this is a story which has to be told more widely.