Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Indian Comedy Show

It would be hilarious if so many clueless, hard working retail investors(aka stockfools) were not hurting..uhm.. actually it *is* hilarious because of such participants in the market.

The market needs fools to survive..no fools means no markets.. there is no other way the semi-literates from nondescript towns in the impoverished countryside turn up in Mumbai and grind away at plying the "share bazaar" for many, many years and suddenly find their little daily gaming the suckers is slowly turned into one of the biggest markets with plenty of 'foreigners' ( wise men these) suddenly throwing large wads of OPM(other people's money) into the casino to see if some nice personal bonus could be had..

At Luddic Research we have identified a key parameter that distinguishes Developed markets from Emerging Markets viz. EMs just do not part fools from their money as decisively as developed markets ruthlessly do.. there.. that's a key defining feature which has aided the rise and survival of folks ( who's have had to make a living hustling tourists in Rajasthan/Gujarat etc. for petty cash if had not chanced on the shareBazaar for some quick cash years ago).

And so they held forth on their views of the market to the myriad adoring fans, investors, minions and media who saw Harshads and Ketans as piedPiper reincarnates ( As an aide was heard whispering to a genuflecting investor beneficiary ".. his shit don't even stink").

But the disruptive white and yellow foreigners ( who longTermInvest with the conviction and longTermness of a parakeet) have over time put a pall of uncertainity on the cosy little arrangements with their little cartels/promoters/regulators/bankers that our odorless fertilizer producers had cherished and nourished back in the day when fools were born many a minute and they had never needed to wipe their own asses.

But this overseas non stability is a spanner which is put to paid many a fond megaloDream of many aspiring global giants/groups/houses that are having to face up to some honest money making.

So all over the world, the fund Chimpanzees were in denial all the way down and 25 sigmaed the "butNobodyNeverSawItComing" to anyone who'd listen.. all the way down..

Just when the Rhesus majority were forlonly accepting a slow and multi Year kind of recession wherein Library science would offer more action packed careers than moneyManagement.. just when conventionally mediocre wisdom (and hell even Easy Al) were coming around to the notion they'd been wrong all along.. the market just got up and ran away..

Now this posed a new quandary.. they were all underinvested now (to put it mildly).. and the market was making a massive surges.. last year they'd clung on by their finger nails on the "noOneSawItComing" boat.. and relative returns to index were still only single digit negative .. everyone was in the same boat.. But missing this rally would be curtains .. your "investors" would surely start questioning your new found onlyABearMarketRally wisdom very, very soon.. it was now up 45% since you'd started bleating about that !

And so emerged the third stage.. the primates' swarming the global markets ( yes.. yes.. Emerging Markets.. outperform.. decouple..RealEstate.. growth story.. go.. go.. go.. ) with their remanant cash of last year's boom,boom raising to try and see if now some performance can be had.. cannot miss this one.

It is getting comical and none so as one of the local boom, boom experts Madhu Kela of Reliance Mutual Fund... who's been convincingly holding out for a recovery from Index 20,000 last year and then after a "correction" of 10,000 points when he'd finally started getting worried about the longTermStory and got into rumored 30% cash.. the market upped and ran away.. so our man was on TV to announce he is savegely bullish again.. ( mostly hoping might see some recovery in his outstanding small and medium cap picks ??) and our feeling is he is having to buy, buy, buy to get back over his inadequacies all over again... it was getting a bit iffy announcing those profitable quarters for the country's biggest (Rs.80,000 crore)($15B) fund manager while the markets were tanking 60%.. eh? but then that's the reason we are decoupled here.. one gets a lump in the throat when we dwell on this one pedigreed Bull.

And as usual the astute fund "managers" have nailed it again this time.. and correctly gotten onto the next bull run.. such is the rush to equities that reportedly, awed by the seeming success of orangutans in this industry .. a delegation of marsupials(?!!) has been spotted at the bourses grappling with the basics of Decoupling.. longTermGrowthStory.. RealEstateAlwaysGoesUp.. FundamentalStrong..InfraStructureStory.. etc. to guide, lead and advise the Investors .

At Luddic Research .. we attribute the orgastically rapid upsurge in Market Indices to the rapidly dwindling forest cover in regions from where most stock experts seem to hail from .. as indeed our models show shocking, shocking correlation.


Max Dama said...


The double top in the RSI-Chi-X(2) broke out of its channel this afternoon at 11:11am signalling a bullish run in Singaporean markets starting at tomorrow's opening auction and continuing for the next 3 days. Corroborated by the resistance to the support of the 200-day Oscillating Exponential Average which has historically preceded 875bp rises with 87% recurrence this is a seldom seen extremely bullish joint-combination signal. Usually I would say good luck but over the next three days luck is unnecessary- the Nikkei will be up exactly 12.7%.

Ludus said...


..but I,m getting a little worried about you.

Parts of your message smell of our boy Victor here

Also, SGX may just as likely get toasted in next 3 days :)

Max Dama said...


Victor didn't pay attention to the Skew-Gaussian Multivariate Distribution of the Andrews Curves representation of the 30 components of the DJIA at 9:50am Thursday October 15th which unequivocally signaled to technical analysts to go short at maximum leverage with a five day holding period and a 1 VaR trailing stop loss. You can lead a horse to water, but you cannot make her drink.

Anonymous said...


M Kela description is fantastic.. What about recent Jhunjhunwala interviews and others like him..

All i wanna say that this blog is one of the fantasic blog. Keep writing :-)