Saturday, March 22, 2008

Monsoon Capital LLC- Toasted Turkey !

The flavor is tropical and the feathered are coming home to roost.(?)

Monsoon capital LLC's (prize Turkey) Gautam Prakash and his elite team forgot to get off the gravyTrain along with the leaping Marketwatch is reporting:

"The Monsoon India Inflection Fund LP has dropped 28.3% this month, through March 20. That leaves it down 45.9% so far in 2008, Prakash wrote in an update to investors. MarketWatch obtained a copy of the letter."
As in most turkeys before thanksgiving..Prakash displays the tragic signs of
*staytheCourse* disbelief and the inability to accept that the hand that fed and fattened him everyday is sharpening that knife NOT for trimming his toe nails(or claws,whatever).

What surprises him more is this is happening despite his ability to quickly grasp the situation at hand:
"The U.S. is mired in a housing collapse, a severe credit crunch and turmoil on Wall Street that threatens the survival of several financial institutions and has compelled the U.S. Federal Reserve to take actions that it has not taken since the Great Depression," Prakash explained in his letter to investors"

..and his innate gift for incisive analysis:
"These series of events and the size of losses have severely undermined investors, who have reassessed the risk premium associated with equities."
"Raising this investment risk premium to a higher level has triggered a correction in equity markets across the world; both developed as well as emerging markets," he added.

Based on his ability to see what others cannot,he offers:
Despite recent signs of slowing slightly, Indian economic growth will still be very strong in coming years and the country isn't as dependent on exports to the U.S. as other developing nations like China, Prakash said.

Then the mild rebuke to the far more myopic,plain "investors":
"Though India is not export-dependent... and therefore should be relatively less economically affected than its Asian neighbors, investors are not drawing this distinction at this point of the crisis," he noted.
..though it would have carried a lot more weight if the world and their barbers did not offer this same balm when the "correction" started in Jan(March 2008 is definitely less calming for loss swallowing fund clients,I feel).

Again we see the pitfalls of having to play with non sophisticates like the "retail investors" and speculators who,God forgive them,were actually buying stocks with borrowed money!!
Prakash said Monsoon has continued to see distressed selling by retail investors and speculators who had bought Indian stocks with borrowed money. Total sales by this group are now over $15 billion in the past two months, he noted.
I am beginning to sympathize with Gautam here,he just got broad-sided by the other players' stupidity.. but like they say:
"Never argue with idiots,they drag you down to their level and beat you with experience"

Gautam ,next time buddy(float me one more fund),just do not allow these leveraged,panicky types to buy any stocks at all.
We'll just keep the "growth story" intact and decoupled between us eh?

In fact his update to his "investors" would be quite hilarious if you were anyone but the target audience(ie. his turkeyFeed).

Finally one question Gautam(can't wrap my head around this)..Just where did you think the Sensex was headed,pal ?
.. As it is obvious you were still buying when the fools were jumping ship at 21,000.

p.s.If anyone can point me to a picture of turkey here..would like to put a face to the words.


dxb said...

Sensex is a profitably good buy at 6-7 thousand for the long-term

I'm guessing indian markets are in for a nasty plunge. And we all know India likes to do it extreme when global markets 'plunge'.

Start shorting at 20K. That's where all the remaining suckers get sucked in probably.

what do U think?

good blog

Anonymous said...

LOL...from 1.6 billion under assets in the good old days. It is now 2014 and 211 million under assets. Inflect this GAP...gobble gobble...