Sunday, March 16, 2008

Viva S&P!

Thursday(I think),the eminent Standard & Poor analysts(after poring over large amounts of data and their proprietary methodology) concluded that the subPrime crisis is more or less blown over,the writedowns more or less done, Financials looking like oversold..more or less..
Friday,Bear falls to $30 and Sunday is sold for $2( after the Fed gives it a $30B crutch)..well maybe *these* guys were a little aberration..most write downs are done.

The point as usual is these guys in S&P do this day in and day out,year round..i.e research and model and analyze some more(not to mention direct access to info not in public domain)..and yet come out with these well researched opinions which would find it tough to beat a dart throwing circus monkey's track record.

Finally, we need to just remember they still maintain AAA ratings on most bond Insurers and such.. maybe they are right about this.. they cannot be wrong all the time of averages has to catch up with even these geniuses.

On the other hand,locally here in India,I think we will see a fresh set of market experts and Investment advisors(entertainers all) on CNBC once all this is finally over , as the current crop has just about lost most of their credibility( and more importantly their retail/HNI/whatever clients who will slowly limp back to their jobs or small businesses).
One is amazed how these "experts" are always in consensus and cocksure about "strong fundamentals" and "growth story" and "decoupled" when the markets are going up and completely baffled the next week and quite unsure about any "advise" when the market turns.

Smells like one way "Expertise".

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