Sunday, March 16, 2008

Where are the "growth-story" cheer leaders?

For endless months the Indian stock markets were a feeding frenzy,where players gorged on and on with just the minimal quick breaks to answer calls of nature(more space!) and rush back to the banquet.
Others watching from outside joined the gorge fest..the food ran out..the kitchens cooked and served whatever fit into a pot and when even that ran out..more was ordered in with little regard to quality or hygiene.The collective appetite showed no signs of early participants waned,fresh ones replaced with bigger gusto.It was was just needed to turn up.
The ushers were sent out far and wide,into the countryside,to round up the unwashed masses to partake this wonderful feast(of course bringing their cash along).

But recently(and unexpectedly),the "growthStoryIntact" and "decoupled" crowd have been slowly growing quieter and less visible.Their confidence is getting some muted and calls for caution a little louder.I suspect probably because of the huge losses these "experts" have caused their little bands of followers by urging to "average down" and "buy the dips" right down from Sensex 21,500 to 15,350.

I also suspect the disbelief of the herd is slowly turning and as is par for *every* boom-bust cycle the retail masses have held on till the very end.The point is the "experts" are able to take huge solace in the fact that *nobody* could have seen this coming and there is plenty of company.

It has been pretty hilarious watching the talking heads go from strongGrowthStory to growthStoryIntact to decoupledEconomy to maybeNotDecoupledMarkets to entirelyCoupled to shakyGrowthPossible.
But,like they say..

As a group, lemmings have a rotten image, but no individual lemming has ever received bad press.
The issue here is when will these clueless charlatans be held resposible..I know the country still battles basic, raw illiteracy, but there needs be someone calling out the game here.
Sample this gem from Deutsche Bank via bloomberg( hat tip galatime) ..
Deutsche lowered its March 2009 target for the Sensitive Index, or Sensex, to 18,000. The bank had earlier set a target for the index of 23,000 by Dec. 2008
..this dude Pratik Gupta,a "strategist" no less,must have some very complex models to arrive at 18k and not 17 or 19 ..just as he had earlier forecast 23,000 precisely and accurately.
The question arises what does he see others do not .. what qualifies him to see so far ahead and finally what purpose does this serve apart from filling the offices with warm bodies of his ilk looking busy for clients.

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